Good news! Barack Obama is effectively the President already.

That's right. You dont have to wait till Jan 20, 2009 as I previously thought. He is pretty much running the show already.

Remember Barack's first press conference where he said "we only have one president at a time in this country"? He was right. It's him.

After that first press conference he went to visit W in the White House and his tone dramatically changed after that meeting. Does anyone want to bet that W in so many words acknowledged that Barack Obama should be more involved going forward?

He knows the people want him to take charge and he is delivering. Listen to him speak. When was the last time we had a President who was intelligent enough to think about a problem from many different perspectives?

I will give you a hint... think Bubba. Yes it was Bubba despite all his shortcomings.

I would really like to say it was a Republican president b/c the economist in me says I am more closely aligned w the conservatives b/c its the GOP that typically supports free market ideologies.

But it would be a lie if I did that.

What do you think of Ed Rendell's comments?

Ben Bernanke and the rest of the feds might as well drop money from airplanes... that's the only thing left to do at this point

Automaker CEOs are starting to get the picture

Earlier today, the CEOs of the big 3 US automakers made their way to D.C.

This is interesting b/c last time they actually drove in their cars this time. The last time they went to Congress to beg for money before the Thanksgiving break they flew in their corporate jets.

Congress blasted them for this and asked them if they would drive the next time they came. Upon returning to Detroit, they put the corporate jets up for sale. (I dont know if they put them up on ebay like Gov Palin.)

They also seem ready to accept virtually no salary if they end up using gov't money for a bailout. This is a good first step for them.

Seems like they will get the money they want.

Thankfully, this time around it will come w strings attached.

When is the world going to take the terrorist threat seriously? When are we going to stop this?

When is the world going to crack down on terrorists training and hiding out in Pakistan?

For the past two days, I have been watching the news about out the terrorist attacks that happened in Mumbai this week. One thing is for sure - I am not surprised it happened.

The fact is that terrorist attacks have been going on in India for years now. And they have gotten more and more deadly over the past several years. You can find the history of terrorist attacks in India all over the internet. India is a natural target b/c it is the largest democracy in the world and is developing closer ties w the west.

Another dirty little secret in all of this is that many of the world's terrorists and their leaders get their training and/or hideout in Pakistan. Yet no one is really willing to acknowledge this fully. Why?

Because if you acknowledge something, then you also have to take action to stop it. That is a daunting proposition for the rest of the nations of the world.

I never really understood why India's relationship w the west was so icy for years. It's the largest democratic, capitalistic country in the world. I also never really understood why the US had a better relationship w Pakistan than it did w India.

Maybe this will be the event that finally forces the world to acknowledge the dirty little secret that some of us have know for quite some time now. International terrorists are training and hiding out in Pakistan and the Pakistani government is not dedicating enough resources to stop their activities.

The rest of the world may end up doing it for them.

Gas is $1.78/gal in my neighborhood. What's the price where you live?

Dont get me wrong, I like low gas prices just like the next guy.

But we shouldnt let the current low price of oil fool us into not doing anything to increase our fuel efficiency over the long-term. Otherwise, we havent learned anything.

And if as a society we lack the conviction to do this on our own as individuals, then I would go so far as to say the government should heavily tax gasoline and use the proceeds immediately to develop alternative fuel technologies.

If we dont do this, OPEC will do it for us by cutting back supply and driving the price of oil higher. The Saudis have openly stated they would like to see the long term price of oil much higher than it is today.

Would you rather spend more money on gasoline and keep the money here in the US or would you rather send the money over the middle east?

It's our choice.

Market Perspective 11/25/2008

Here is my take on the markets this week -

• GDP number for Q3 2008 was revised down to -0.5% from 0.3%. Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.
• Most other data revealing the state of the economy right now (i.e. 4Q 2008) suggest SERIOUS negative economic growth. Think something like -5% annualized. The last time we saw data this bad was 1980-1981.
• Unemployment data deteriorating at an accelerated pace. Peak unemployment very likely to be 8.5-9% in the first half of 2009. This number is moving fast. Keep an eye on it. We are in a heap of problems if the peak number moves past 10%.
• Most economists now saying 2009 is lost which means it will be 2010 before the economy even thinks about getting better.
• Watch out for what happens w the automakers. They will likely get the $25bn they need from Congress, but not w out strings attached. We should all hope they get this money right now if for no other reason than not giving them the money at this very moment in time will literally send the economy into a death spiral. This is not what we need right now. Long term, we should focus on the problem of the automakers as a country but we cant just let them go cold turkey. We have to downsize the automakers in an orderly fashion over the course of several years.
• One big thing the market was looking for was for Obama to step up to the plate and take more control over the economic situation. Previously he said he wasnt the President until Jan 20. The market didnt like that. We want him to announce his economic team which he did this week and last. Since W is pretty much a lame duck at this point, everyone was loking to Obama to be more vocal about his intentions on Jan 20. Obama got the message and has been more active about communicating his intentions on how to deal w this economic crisis. Market rallied on this news.

If you have been watching the stock market recently, you know the market has been forming something of a bottom at recent levels. This bottom is a very delicate one in my opinion. Any news that the deterioration is accelerating is going to be a problem for the markets to handle. Automakers need to get their money w strings attached.

Cross your fingers...

The Old TARP Bait and Switch

Yes, ladies and gentlemen the Bush Administration has once again pulled the old "bait and switch" on the American people.

A couple of months ago, this administration was talking about the troubled assets on the bank balance sheets. They wanted to create a market for those assets by purchasing them. One last time, they resorted to fear mongering by telling the public of serious consequences if we didnt do anything. They said this was critical. Congress gave them what they wanted to the tune of $700 billion dollars.

Then, they figured out what everyone already knew. There was no way to figure out what the assets were worth b/c the market for them was broken in the first place. So, paying market price wasnt going to work b/c it would put the banks out of business. And this is what they were trying to avoid. When they finally realized this they decided to change the plan and provide the banks w/capital at overpriced valuations.

Then last week Paulson changed the plan completely to now focus on consumer assets. What this really means is more free money for the automakers. More artificially easy financing for US consumers so they can buy US autos from companies that really should fail. For all of you who are against the bailout, you should be ticked about this. For all of you who supported the bailout b/c it was needed to save the financial system, you should be ticked b/c the automakers could very well get another freebie via TARP w no strings attached.

Watch out. This is not what most people thought the TARP was going to be.

Yes, Kashkari Is A Chump (?)

Take a look at this video of Neel Kashkari, who is the person currently in charge of the TARP program for the federal gov't. By now, most of you have seen the video. In case you were wondering, yes I would classify Kashkari as an American Desi.

Regardless, Kashkari was definitely not prepared to testify before Congress. There were several occasions during the testimony when he didnt know what to say. Perhaps he was caught off guard by the reception he received. I wonder what he expected.

At one point during the interview, he said he didnt think taxpayers money should be used to support banks that were going to fail. Huh? I thought one of the reasons the gov't bailout is in existence was to save the banking system! So if these banks weren't going to fail, then why did they need the money in the first place?

He didnt have any good responses to questions about why AIG execs were taking govt bailout money in one hand and then going on expensive business trips at the same time. Taxpayers should be outraged their money is being used to save companies where the execs are going on expensive business trips in exotic locations.

It was an ugly session for Kashkari.

Video of Woman Who Thinks She Won't Have to Pay Her Mortgage If She Votes for Obama

Watch this video and leave a comment to let me know what you think of this. Maybe I am missing something here or interpreting what she is saying incorrectly. But it sounds like she thinks she wont have to pay for gas or pay her mortgage if she votes for Barack. I am an Obama supporter but I have to admit this is strange.

Another Election Thought

I am particuarly surprised at some of the election results from yesterday. For example, there were some local county commissioners who by all accounts were actually doing a good job but were ousted simply b/c of their party affiliation. I do not agree w/this but I suppose it is a consequence of an election w a high Dem voter turnout.

Also, I thought John McCain delivered a really great speech last night. He was well aware of the significance of what happened yesterday and addressed it appropriately.

Thoughts on Obama Victory

(I found this awesome pic of Barack Obama on the Flickr website at the following location.)

Let me take a few moments to reflect on Barack Obama winning the Presidential election yesterday.

I agree with everyone that this is a great moment in American history. It really is. Prior to this year, I honestly never really thought we would see a black President in my lifetime but I am so happy to live to see this day. Just to be fair, I should say that I did vote for Hillary in the primary and I did hold out to the end of her campaign to support throw my support behind Barack. I had my doubts about him. Until more recently, I never really saw the Obama movement in full force. Then the crowds kept getting bigger and bigger. In St. Louis 100,000 people came to see him. In Berlin (Germany), 250,000 people! Last night, over 250,000 people came to see him deliver his victory speech in Chicago. Awesome. Just awesome.

To be honest, I feel like I underestimated the idea of an Obama Movement. I never really considered it a movement until I saw the crowds. They adore this man. They see him as a symbol of all the things that America can become. Last night, I realized it when someone on the news started talking about how this was the first time since the Civil Rights Movement that young people got together and tried to create change in the country. This time however, they didn't try to create change outside the system, they did from inside the system. They used the democratic process against the establishment. What a beautiful thing. Perhaps this is all fantasy and nothing will ever happen, but let me believe it for now because it feels great. Part of me feels good b/c finally we get what was taken from us 8 yrs ago when we were robbed in 2000. We will never get these past 8 yrs back but maybe we will be able to fix what went wrong.

Finally, I am now ready to openly admit that during the past several weeks as election day was coming closer, I too started feeling like I was getting swept away by the Obama Movement. I will call it a movement because its just as much about the idea he is selling as it is about him. That's the beauty of the whole thing. It's an idea. The more I think about it, the more overwhelmed I become.

But in the next breath, let us be real about one thing - he has a lot of work to do. I hope he is up to the task.

Obama Rally Video and Notes

Here is a brief 30 second video clip from the Obama rally I went to at UNC Charlotte tonight. There were probably about 10,000 people there although the exact number was difficult to estimate. I waited in line for about 45 minutes before security started letting people just go right to the second field behind the main area for the event. Rajul and Sophia did not come and it's a good thing b/c I was on my feet the whole time and for a while it was raining really hard.

I went since Barack was coming only 1 mile from our home and it was the day before election day. I didnt know what to expect and for the most part he repeated everything he had been saying since the convention. I suppose at this point it's challenging to say anything new.

With regards to the election itself, my personal opinion is that we will know who the president is before we go to bed tomorrow night. It is not going to be a close race. Obama will win at least 325 electoral votes. I think the media is trying to convince everyone the election will be a closer race b/c they need us to watch tv for the ratings. I think NC will go Democrat for the first time since Jimmy Carter I believe.

Hopefully the lines to vote will not be long tomorrow.

So This Is What It Feels Like to Live in a Swing State

Robocalls, 5 glossy mailers a day, people knocking on your door. They were even at my gym the other night. Candidates coming to stump every several days. Personally, I can't remember ever having so many opportunities to go see the candidates speak. It's really a weird feeling to have the candidates pay so much attention to North Carolina which hasnt voted Dem in a presidential election in 24 years or something. As recently as 6 months, mostly everyone I know (including myself) figured NC was so red it would be ignored during the campaign.

The plain and simple fact is that NC demographics have permanently changed in the last 10-20 years. So many people have moved here from the Northeast. Combine that with the newly arrived Hispanic population and African Americans who have been here all along and I guess that gives you a swing state.

The fact that the hisorically red NC is a swing state leaning toward Obama does not bode for the Republicans.

Review of Third Presidential Debate

Last night, Rajul and I watched the third presidential debate on TV b/t Obama and McCain. The debate seemed like a big waste of time to me especially considering the Phillies game was on TV at the same time. Anyway, I thought if anyone "won" the debate, it was Barack. The strategies were clear. For McCain, stay on the attack. For Obama, stay cool and dont screw anything up.

Mac brought up this whole Joe the plumber thing which turned out to be the biggest joke of the debate. Turns out Joe the plumber isnt really a licensed plumber and owes back taxes. The whole thing is a mess. McCain just wasnt able to derail Obama in the 90 min debate.

At this point, I think there is a good chance, Obama could end up winning well over 325 electoral votes on election day. If that happens, he will have a pretty strong mandate as president and the dems will streamroll policy especially if they end up winning a boatload of seats in congress.

The presidential race is starting to get a little boring and I am beginning to wish the whole thing was over already.

McCain calls Obama "That one"

This video is unbelievable. At the time McCain made this comment during last night's presidential debate, I sort of thought to myself "he probably should not have said that." I think it sort of shows Mac's lack of respect for the man who is going to beat him in this race. It's a bit of contempt and anger on his part and it's not really helping his cause. Unfortunately, he probably feels a bit frustrated given he may in fact be more qualified to be president but most people dont care about that right now. If they did, Hillary would have been the Dem nominee, but she isn't.

McCain has to defend North Carolina

In a tragic turn of events for conservative North Carolinians everywhere, Politico reports in this article that North Carolina is effectively a battleground state. Obama has been here 3x in the past month and is currently spending several days in the state. I think at this point the McCain camp is a little dismayed at the situation b/c they now have to defend states they previously thought were solidly red. This will be a problem for the McCain camp as they have already pulled out of Michigan and now they are on their heels in places like NC. The race is turning against them. This race may already be over.